In February 2025, Tesla released a series of important signals: the production capacity of its self-developed 4680 large cylindrical battery exceeded 16GWh, and it plans to launch a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) version within the year; BMW also announced that models equipped with new-generation large cylindrical batteries will be launched in the second half of the year.
This “cylindrical storm” set off by Tesla is subverting the technical route and market structure of the power battery industry. From insufficient yield to monthly production capacity exceeding 10,000, from cost doubts to giants following suit, how did large cylindrical batteries occupy a place in the electric vehicle industry? How will this technological revolution reshape the global industrial chain?
1. Tesla’s 4680 battery: from technological breakthrough to production capacity surge
Since its debut at the 2020 “Battery Day”, Tesla’s 4680 large cylindrical battery has been carrying the high hopes of “reducing costs and increasing efficiency”. After four years of technological iteration, its self-supplied installed capacity jumped from 0.1GWh to 8GWh in 2024, a year-on-year growth rate of 7900%. Behind this leap is Tesla’s continued efforts to tackle core technologies such as dry electrode technology and full-ear design.
1.1 Three-stage iteration: balancing yield, cost, and performance
- The first generation (2021-2022): energy density 229-244Wh/kg, limited by the wet cathode process, low yield and high cost, only used for small batch trial production.
- The second generation (2022-2024): optimize the welding process, increase the energy density to 252-255Wh/kg, applied to Model Y and Cybertruck, support 8GWh installed capacity in 2024.
- The third generation (from Q4 2024): codenamed 4680D, both positive and negative electrodes use dry process, get rid of wet dependence, reduce costs by 30%, first installed on Cybertruck, and plan to launch LFP version in 2026 to adapt to Robotaxi and other models.
1.2 Capacity layout: 100GWh global layout
Tesla has deployed 4680 production lines in its Texas and Nevada super factories, with a single-line capacity of up to 25GWh, and aims to exceed 70GWh in total capacity by 2025. At the same time, it cooperates with LG Energy Solution and Panasonic to build a diversified supply chain: LG plans to start production at its Ochang plant in South Korea (8GWh/year) in August 2024, and Panasonic is trialing the 4680 production line in the United States.
1.3 Market layout: From Cybertruck to the promotion of “civilian models”
The high energy density and fast charging capability of the 4680 battery provide support for the Cybertruck’s 123kWh large-capacity battery pack. The development of the LFP version of the 4680 is directly approaching cost-sensitive models, such as the rumored Model Q and the long-wheelbase version of the Model Y specifically for China, further expanding market share.
2. BMW’s “following the trend” and industry resonance: the global competition of large cylindrical batteries
Tesla is not fighting alone. BMW announced in February 2025 that the new generation of large cylindrical batteries will be installed in the sixth-generation eDrive model, with a 20% increase in energy density and a 30% increase in range. The 46mm diameter standard battery cell (95mm/120mm in height) it chose forms a differentiated competition with Tesla, but the technical routes are highly similar: high-nickel and low-cobalt cathode materials, silicon-based anode materials, and full-ear design.
2.1 Supply chain alliances: CATL, EVE Energy, and Envision Power are the three major players
BMW has built integrated production capacity by binding Chinese battery giants:
- CATL: Supply cylindrical batteries to BMW globally from 2026, and simultaneously promote production capacity in Germany and China.
- EVE Energy: Shenyang plant will start trial production in March 2025, Omnicell batteries support 6C fast charging, and have received orders from JAC, Changan, etc.
- Envision Power: The 30GWh plant in South Carolina, USA, will be put into production in 2027, with a zero-carbon label.
2.2 Technological dividend: Double breakthrough in fast charging and safety
BMW’s new battery supports 800V high-voltage platform, shortens 10%-80% charging time by 30%, and improves safety through heat spread control technology. This complements Tesla’s 4680 “structural battery pack + CTC (cell directly integrated into chassis)” technology, jointly promoting the performance upgrade of electric vehicles.
3. Industry Reconstruction: Supply Chain Reshuffle and Material Revolution
The rise of large cylindrical batteries is reshaping the power battery industry chain:
1. Equipment and Raw Materials: Dry Electrodes and Silicon-based Anodes are on the Trend
Tesla 4680D uses dual dry electrode technology, driving a surge in orders from Korean equipment manufacturers such as PNT; the demand for silicon-based anodes has exploded due to the increase in energy density, and companies such as BYD and Shanshan have accelerated their expansion.
2. Opportunities and Challenges for Chinese Manufacturers
CATL and EVE Energy have become the first choice for international automakers with their first-mover production capacity and technology reserves. However, Japanese and Korean companies (such as LG and Panasonic) still have advantages in dry process and high-nickel cathode fields, and Chinese manufacturers need to accelerate the breakthrough of patent barriers.
3. Cost Game: Scale Effect and Substitution Critical Point
It is estimated that when the annual output of 4680 exceeds 100GWh, the cost can be reduced to 70/kWh, which is lower than the current 70/80-90/kWh of square batteries. If Tesla achieves its 70GWh production capacity target by 2025, the power battery price war may enter a new stage.
4. Controversy and hidden concerns: The battle over technical routes is far from over
Although large cylindrical batteries are gaining momentum, they still face multiple challenges:
1. Counterattack of prismatic cell batteries
Prismatic lithium battery materials (LFP) (such as BYD blade batteries) dominated by Chinese manufacturers have an advantage in the low- and mid-end markets due to their low cost and high safety. Whether Tesla’s LFP version 4680 can balance performance and price remains to be verified.
2. The problem of mass production consistency
Large cylindrical batteries have extremely high requirements for processes such as pole ear welding and shell sealing, and yield fluctuations may drag down the release of production capacity. In the cooperation between BMW and CATL, the stability optimization of “full pole ear connection technology” is also emphasized.
3. Charging infrastructure bottleneck
800V fast charging relies on the construction of a supercharging network, and the charging standards of Tesla and BMW have not yet been unified, which may restrict user experience.
Conclusion: The “critical point” of technological revolution and future imagination
The explosion of large cylindrical batteries is not only a technological gamble by Tesla and BMW, but also a sign that the electric vehicle industry has shifted from “policy-driven” to “technology-driven”. When the 4680 production capacity exceeds one million GWh and the cost approaches the power system of fuel vehicles, the popularization of electric vehicles will usher in a real “singularity”. In this transformation, whether Chinese companies can surpass in dry process, material innovation, and solid-state batteries may determine the final position of the global power battery industry.
